Obervations in the time of COVID-19, Part 4
In an effort to put more down on (digital) paper, just in case there are still historians in the future, I'm going to make a couple observations about C-19 and the economy.
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As of today, near the end of April 2020, government officials at most levels -- municipal, state, and federal -- are talking about "reopening" the economy. Setting aside for a moment whether the economy is something that can be opened (or closed in the first place),* and setting aside the obvious problems with treating the economy as some sort of device that has an on/off switch, the reopening talk is insane.
It's insane because, as far as I can tell, no one has a plan to make the so-called reopening work. For one thing, the polling data we have suggests that a shockingly high percentage of Americans support social isolation. So as an initial matter, it's not at all clear that people will actually go out and use the reopened economy. Will people work from the office more than from home? Probably. But bars, restaurants, theaters, etc. are not going to bounce back in the short term whether they are allowed to try as a formal legal matter. And high education, who's going to pay $70,000 a year to go (maybe) live in a dorm on a college campus? Certainly no one is going to pay that to learn from their parents' basement.
But far more importantly, the United States does have the ability to test for C-19 at any economically meaningful manner.
To "open" the economy, we as a society (which means the government, because that's in fact the point of having a government) need to have testing protocols in place. Funded and run by the government. The protocols would include regular testing, contact tracing, and isolation measures. Meaning that we need to know who has it, trace the connections of those people to do more testing, and then provide those people who are positive a place to isolate so they don't infect the people they live with.
Without that, all of this "reopening" talk is bullshit -- there will just be another round of massive death coming in a few months. At which point there will once again be a decision to "close" the economy, or let thousands of people die as sacrifice on the alter of the God-Market. I have my guesses. But in any event, opening up the economy is meaningless without a plan regarding how that is actually going to work.
Tomorrow, I'll post about a couple of policy points related to all this: federal work guarantee, and universal basic income.
* In a basic but vitally important sense, the economy is simply a term for the way society provides itself with goods and services that it wants and needs. I think it's at best unwise don't really think metaphors that compare it to an engine or device or whatever is useful. In fact, it tends to misdirect people from the basic understanding in the first sentence of this footnote.
[ - ]
As of today, near the end of April 2020, government officials at most levels -- municipal, state, and federal -- are talking about "reopening" the economy. Setting aside for a moment whether the economy is something that can be opened (or closed in the first place),* and setting aside the obvious problems with treating the economy as some sort of device that has an on/off switch, the reopening talk is insane.
It's insane because, as far as I can tell, no one has a plan to make the so-called reopening work. For one thing, the polling data we have suggests that a shockingly high percentage of Americans support social isolation. So as an initial matter, it's not at all clear that people will actually go out and use the reopened economy. Will people work from the office more than from home? Probably. But bars, restaurants, theaters, etc. are not going to bounce back in the short term whether they are allowed to try as a formal legal matter. And high education, who's going to pay $70,000 a year to go (maybe) live in a dorm on a college campus? Certainly no one is going to pay that to learn from their parents' basement.
But far more importantly, the United States does have the ability to test for C-19 at any economically meaningful manner.
To "open" the economy, we as a society (which means the government, because that's in fact the point of having a government) need to have testing protocols in place. Funded and run by the government. The protocols would include regular testing, contact tracing, and isolation measures. Meaning that we need to know who has it, trace the connections of those people to do more testing, and then provide those people who are positive a place to isolate so they don't infect the people they live with.
Without that, all of this "reopening" talk is bullshit -- there will just be another round of massive death coming in a few months. At which point there will once again be a decision to "close" the economy, or let thousands of people die as sacrifice on the alter of the God-Market. I have my guesses. But in any event, opening up the economy is meaningless without a plan regarding how that is actually going to work.
Tomorrow, I'll post about a couple of policy points related to all this: federal work guarantee, and universal basic income.
* In a basic but vitally important sense, the economy is simply a term for the way society provides itself with goods and services that it wants and needs. I think it's at best unwise don't really think metaphors that compare it to an engine or device or whatever is useful. In fact, it tends to misdirect people from the basic understanding in the first sentence of this footnote.
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